The SEC is a DOMINANT conference in college football. They are, in many ways, the standard toward which other programs strive. But in the world of sports journalism, making assumptions about games before they are played – which seems to be rampant in this year’s postseason – is both a frequent and controversial practice. From analysts projecting who will win based on team rosters and past performance, to fans creating narratives based on gut feelings, assumptions often shape the conversations leading up to the game. However, the true value of these assumptions extends beyond mere prediction—they influence how players, coaches, and even media pundits approach the game.
(Spoiler alert: we believe the SEC is still dominant, but read on…)
The Psychological Factors Behind Pre-Game Assumptions
To understand the value of making assumptions before a game, we must first explore the psychological concepts that drive these decisions. Cognitive biases play a significant role in shaping how assumptions are formed. For example, confirmation bias leads analysts and fans to seek out information that supports their preconceived beliefs about a team’s strength or weakness. If a team has performed well in past seasons, people may overestimate their chances of success in the current season, disregarding recent changes or underestimating an opponent’s capabilities. This factor is especially strong in the social media age, since teams with the largest fan bases will find it easier to confirm existing biases…
This is particularly evident in the ongoing conversation about the College Football Playoff (CFP). The Southeastern Conference (SEC) – home to perennial powerhouse teams like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU – has frequently sparked debates over whether more SEC teams should be included in the playoff. The belief that SEC teams are inherently better has led many to assume that they deserve multiple spots, despite the fact that conference depth is not always reflected in the playoff committee’s selection process (or on the field).
Social proof is also in play, as it is a human tendency to follow the opinions of the majority. In sports, this manifests in the media’s collective agreement on certain teams’ superiority. Once the consensus forms—often influenced by experts, analysts, and high-profile personalities—others in the media, fans, and players begin to internalize this narrative. This can shape expectations and even lead to psychological fatigue for teams not included in the “elite” conversations. And, well, it’s kind of annoying.
College Football Playoff Debate
The widespread assumption about the SEC’s inherent strength has been in question as bowl game outcomes have demonstrated the unpredictable nature of college football.
The bowl season has provided a stark reminder of the pitfalls of pre-game assumptions. In one of the most eye-opening results, Ohio State toppled Tennessee with a decisive 42-17 victory. Before the game, many assumed that Tennessee’s high-powered offense, led by quarterback Nico Iamaleava, would overwhelm Ohio State’s defense. Yet, Ohio State, with its untouchable passing attack and smothering defense, proved the predictions wrong.
It hasn’t been going particularly well for the rest of the SEC…
Perhaps the most significant example comes from the Michigan vs. Alabama bowl game. Michigan’s 19-13 win over Alabama highlighted several psychological factors that contributed to the unexpected result. One of the key storylines before the game was the off-field distraction surrounding Alabama’s quarterback, Jalen Milroe. Reports suggested that Milroe appeared more concerned with a NIL photoshoot than preparing for the game with his team. Milroe, whose turnover struggles were well-documented throughout the season, proceeded to commit three turnovers in what was ultimately a one-score game.
This incident speaks volumes about the dangers of assuming that star players or historically strong programs will simply show up and perform. Despite the pre-game assumption that Alabama would win, Milroe’s distractions and mental lapse during crucial moments of the game demonstrated the importance of preparation and focus. Assumptions about teams’ success often fail to account for individual mental states and off-field factors that can ultimately influence a game’s outcome.
A Call for Focus on the Game
Relax, pundits. (Lane Kiffin too.) Stop the chatter about reputation, stop projecting personal values onto the masses, stop with the sideshows and focus on what really matters: the game.
While assumptions can guide initial analyses and generate conversation, they also run the risk of overlooking critical psychological variables and real-time developments. The SEC is a DOMINANT conference in college football. They are, in many ways, the standard many other programs strive toward. But whether it’s the media’s constant narrative around the SEC or players becoming distracted by personal matters, we’re getting too caught up in the noise.
For players, coaches, and media alike, focusing more on the game itself—and less on preconceived narratives—might be the key to both improved performance and more accurate reporting. As seen in the recent bowl games, focusing on preparation, team cohesion, and psychological readiness can yield results that no one could have predicted (or at least have thus far failed to predict).
Let’s get back to the basics. During bowl season, match up teams based on their season resume, and give both teams a fair shot. Focus on the good storylines. Focus on the development, growth, and camaraderie – let’s take those narratives into bowl season. Then play ball.
